Who Will Lead Next? Rethinking the Leadership Pipeline

Organizations are entering one of the most consequential leadership transitions in decades as the talent pipeline for leaders is collapsing from both ends. On their way out of numerous leadership roles, approximately 30.4 million Baby Boomers will reach retirement age between now and 2030. Meanwhile, upcoming generations are distancing themselves from leadership roles as 42 percent of American workers say they are not interested in moving up the ladder.

For HR leaders, this moment carries both urgent risk and opportunity. In terms of risks, current trends on both ends of the talent pipeline threaten leadership continuity, organizational performance, and long-term business success.

On the other hand, HR leaders have the most clarity to anticipate where leadership vulnerabilities will emerge by leveraging visibility into workforce demographics, engagement trends, capability gaps, and succession risks. HR also sits at the intersection of talent strategy and business strategy, giving it the authority and insight needed to redesign roles, reshape career paths, and build modern leadership development systems.

Current leadership shortages are not the result of a single issue but a convergence of trends that are reshaping the future of leadership. In this blog, we will provide clarity on the challenges of succession as well as actionable steps HR leaders can take to bolster pipelines and rethink organizational readiness.

Two Questions to Consider

Before organizations can redesign leadership pipelines for the future, they must first understand the scope of the succession challenge unfolding today. Two equally urgent and interconnected questions must be asked: Who is leaving leadership roles, and who is prepared to step into them? By examining both sides of the equation, HR leaders can more clearly identify where vulnerabilities lie and what strategic interventions are needed to sustain leadership continuity.

1. Who is going to retire? 

A significant percentage of today’s leaders are approaching retirement simultaneously, creating a major drain on institutional knowledge and capability. Since 2020, an estimated 5 million workers have left the labor force, and more than 80 percent were aged 55 or older.

For many organizations, this age group includes long-tenured individual contributors, seasoned managers, and a meaningful portion of director-level leaders. Their accelerated exit is driving critical vacancies and shrinking the leadership depth that organizations rely on.

2. Who is going to replace retirees?

Historically, management was the primary path to advancement, but shifting economic pressures, rising workload demands, and expectations for flexibility and well-being have changed this calculus. Nearly three in four Gen Z professionals prefer to deepen expertise rather than manage others—as a potential means of avoiding stress, limited autonomy, and misalignment with their values.

Another key factor contributing to the lack of interest in leadership roles is the confidence gap in current leaders: Only 46 percent of employees believe their manager is effective, for example. Collectively, these dynamics weaken the leadership pipeline that organizations have traditionally depended on.

Three Ways the Retirement Cliff Is Impacting Traditional Succession Models

To understand the full impact of the retirement cliff, it is important to examine the forces that are transforming leadership transitions. In response to increasingly rapid change, HR leaders are actively engaged in reworking priorities in talent development, employee data analysis, and workforce planning.

1. Retirement timelines are unpredictable

Senior leaders are retiring at uneven rates. In many organizations, some are postponing retirement due to economic uncertainty, while others are exiting early because of burnout or shifting personal priorities. This unpredictability makes it challenging for HR to plan leadership transitions and ensure a strong bench.

2. Mentorship is more necessary than ever

HR once relied on stable hierarchies and gradual leadership turnover. Succession planning focused on identifying a small set of ready-now leaders. But with more frequent and less predictable exits, those models are no longer adequate. New interventions such as long-term mentorship or multilayered leadership development are essential to rework succession and reduce the cost of acquiring talent for retirement-driven vacancies.

3. A leadership readiness strategy is now essential

As patterns of retirement become more volatile, HR must broaden talent identification and evaluate whether leadership roles need to be redesigned. A modernized approach to identifying and developing leaders is necessary to maintain continuity and support organizational performance. Rather than depending on traditional career ladders to naturally create pathways for the next generation of leaders, HR strategy must play a more active role in recognizing the skills and core competencies that the current workforce brings to the table, what needs to be developed, and how that translates to long-term needs.

Engaging the Next Generation

Factors such as hybrid work, artificial intelligence, and rising expectations around purpose and well-being are reshaping what the next generation of leaders wants from their careers. In many organizations, we are seeing that many traditional candidates for future leadership are “consciously stepping off the leadership track,” reflecting skepticism toward roles that feel stressful, inflexible, or disconnected from personal values.

One contributing factor influencing leadership development pipelines is that employees often see leadership experiences as neither motivating nor well supported. Of course, leadership is not for everyone. However, the issue seems to be less about who wants to be a leader and more about the traditional value propositions of organizational leadership, including financial gain and influence.

In fact, many early- and mid-career employees question whether leadership paths conflict with their personal values such as autonomy, meaningful impact, transparency, and well-being. They want roles that allow them to lead through collaboration and expertise—not hierarchy—and it is not clear whether current leadership roles are designed for that priority.

In response, HR leaders should take practical steps to address these concerns, including clarifying leadership role expectations, designing more manageable spans of control, strengthening coaching and development support, and creating pathways that allow for influence without sacrificing balance. These efforts to support future-ready organizations can ensure that leadership roles are motivating, sustainable, and supported by resources that enable leaders to succeed.

Bottom Line: Acting Now Saves Resources in the Long Run

Long-term investment in leadership development has been shown to increase both performance and bottom-line impact. This is particularly true when comparing the cost and performance of internal development to hiring external talent, showing that HR’s greatest source for future leaders already exists within the organization.

Organizations are experimenting with leadership models that better reflect today’s workforce expectations. Some are building dual career ladders that allow high-performers to advance through expertise instead of people management. Others are piloting shared or distributed leadership structures that reduce dependence on overstretched managers and elevate collaborative influence. There is also progress in modernizing manager support systems, such as AI-enabled workflows that reduce administrative burden and leadership training programs designed specifically for frontline supervisors.

These innovations are promising; however, many efforts remain isolated or stuck in the pilot stage. If an organization lacks a cohesive leadership architecture, it will continue to experience an uneven and insufficient leadership pipeline that will be worsened by rising rates of retirement. However, when HR steps into this moment with clarity and intention, the future of organizational leadership can look vastly different from today’s strained reality.